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Examining the Safety Benefits of Partial Vehicle Automation Technologies in an Uncertain Future
Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are designed to increase driving comfort by automating parts of the driving task under certain conditions, as well as increase safety by warning drivers of dangerous situations and momentarily braking or steering automatically to attempt to avoid crashing. These technologies have become common on new vehicles, and they are expected to provide substantial safety benefits. However, there is substantial uncertainty regarding how large their safety benefits will be and how quickly they will accrue, as both will be impacted by many complex and interconnected factors that will influence how widely such technologies are offered on new vehicles, how likely consumers are to purchase vehicles equipped with them, the extent to which consumers choose to use these technologies, as well as how quickly the technologies improve and mature. The purpose of this study was to develop a methodology to estimate how many motor vehicle crashes, injuries, and deaths ADAS technologies are likely to prevent over the next 30 years, while acknowledging and taking into account the many factors likely to influence them.
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